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      全球能源互联网

      第5卷 第4期 2022年07月；页码：398-408
      EN 引

      碳中和目标下可再生能源匮乏型国家电力发展研究 ——以新加坡为例

      Research on Power Development of Renewable Energy Deficient Countries Towards the Goal of Carbon Neutrality: A Case Study of Singapore

      白苏1 ,白云飞2 ,袁骏3 ,刘哲1 ,高艺1*
      BAI Su1 , BAI Yunfei2 , YUAN Jun3 , LIU Zhe1 , GAO Yi1*
      • 1. 全球能源互联网发展合作组织，北京市 西城区 100031
      • 2. 国网石家庄供电公司，河北省 石家庄市 050041
      • 3. 清华大学，北京市 海淀区 100084
      • BAI Su1, BAI Yunfei2, YUAN Jun3, LIU Zhe1, GAO Yi1* (1. Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization, Xicheng District, Beijing 100031, China
      • 2. State Grid Shijiazhuang Electric Power Supply Company, Shijiazhuang 050041, Hebei Province, China
      • 3. Tsinghua University, Haidian District, Beijing 100084, China
      DOI:10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2022.04.010

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      摘 要

      Abstract

      随着全球120多个国家陆续宣布碳中和目标，可再生能源资源不足地区、国家如何实现碳中和成为研究的焦点。新加坡可再生能源匮乏，如何在应对气候变化的同时满足国内能源需求，促进可持续发展一直是新加坡的重要课题之一。新加坡电力需求分布在居民、商业、交通和工业四大部门，通过历史数据分析各部门能源需求的变化规律，以碳中和为目标，2050年能源需求为约束，提出新加坡各部门的能源转型方向，并据此预测碳中和目标下新加坡电力需求。再通过模型分析新加坡2050年电力供应方式，规划结果显示，新加坡电力供应方式将从气电为主转变为太阳能、生物质和氢能等可再生能源为主。但由于新加坡可再生资源潜力不足，电力和氢能均需进口，以中国—新加坡和澳大利亚—新加坡为例，对陆上远距离输电、跨海远距离输电和海运输氢经济性进行对比分析，计算结果表明全球能源互联网框架下的陆上远距离输电经济性最优，度电成本为8.8美分/kWh；进口液氢就地发电其次，成本为15美分/kWh；海上远距离电力进口成本最高，达17美分/kWh。

      As more than 120 countries have announced the goal of carbon neutrality, how to achieve carbon neutrality in areas with insufficient renewable resources has become the focus.How to meet energy demand while dealing with climate change and promoting sustainable development is an important issue for Singapore. Singapore’s electricity demand is distributed in four major sectors: residential, commercial, transport, and industrial sectors. Based on the historical data, this paper analyzes the changing law of energy demand of various sectors, takes carbon neutrality as the goal and 2050 energy demand as the constraint,and puts forward the direction of energy transformation of various sectors in Singapore. According to the energy mix, the power demand of Singapore towards the carbon neutrality target is predicted. Through the optimization model, the power supply mode of Singapore in 2050 is analyzed. The planning results show that the power supply mode of Singapore will change from gas to renewable energy such as solar energy, biomass,and hydrogen energy. However, due to the insufficient potential of renewable resources in Singapore, both electricity and hydrogen energy need to be imported. Taking China-Singapore and Australia-Singapore as examples, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the economy of land long-distance transmission, cross-sea long-distance transmission, and maritime hydrogen transmission. The results show that the onshore longdistance transmission is the best, with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of 8.8 cents/kWh, followed by hydrogen,with the LCOE of 15 cents/kWh, and offshore long-distance electricity imports with the highest LCOE of 17 cents/kWh.

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      基金项目

      国家自然科学基金项目（52107077）；全球能源互联网集团有限公司科技项目（考虑大规模多态电能替代负荷接入的电源充裕度量化与规划方法研究，SGGEIG00JYJS2100033）。

      作者简介

      • 白苏

        白苏（1990），男，博士，主要从事能源电力规划、能源战略等方面的研究工作，E-mail：su-bai@geidco.org。

      • 白云飞

        白云飞（1981），男，高级工程师，主要从事电网调度、设备运检工作，E-mail：2803293329@qq.com。

      • 袁骏

        袁骏（1990），男，硕士，主要从事优化算法、模型设计工作，E-mail：744176958@qq.com。

      • 刘哲

        刘哲（1987），男，高级工程师，主要从事能源电力规划、能源战略等方面的研究工作，E-mail：zhe-liu@geidco.org。

      出版信息

      文章编号：2096-5125 (2022) 04-0398-11

      中图分类号：TK01；TM715

      文献标志码：A

      DOI：10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2022.04.010

      收稿日期：2021-11-19

      修回日期：

      出版日期：2022-07-25

      引用信息： 白苏,白云飞,袁骏等.碳中和目标下可再生能源匮乏型国家电力发展研究 ——以新加坡为例[J].全球能源互联网,2022,5(4):398-408 .BAI Su, BAI Yunfei, YUAN Jun,et al.Research on Power Development of Renewable Energy Deficient Countries Towards the Goal of Carbon Neutrality: A Case Study of Singapore[J].Journal of Global Energy Interconnection,2022,5(4):398-408 (in Chinese).

      （责任编辑 李锡）

      ISSN 2096-5125
      CN 10-1550/TK

      地址: 北京市西城区宣武门内大街8号
      版权所有: 全球能源互联网发展合作组织 ® 2021 版权所有
      主办单位: 全球能源互联网集团有限公司

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