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Wind-speed forecasting model based on DBN-Elman combined with improved PSO-HHT

2023-11-27

Wind-speed forecasting model based on DBN-Elman combined with improved PSO-HHT

基于 DBN-Elman 和改进 PSO-HHT 方法的风速预测模型

Wei Liu1,Feifei Xue2,Yansong Gao2,Wumaier Tuerxun1,2,Jing Sun2,Yi Hu1,Hongliang Yuan1

1.Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited,Xi’an 710000,P.R.China

2.College of Energy and Electrical Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,P.R.China

Abstract

Random and fluctuating wind speeds make it difficult to stabilize the wind-power output, which complicates the execution of wind-farm control systems and increases the response frequency. In this study, a novel prediction model for ultrashort-term wind-speed prediction in wind farms is developed by combining a deep belief network, the Elman neural network, and the Hilbert-Huang transform modified using an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm. The experimental results show that the prediction results of the proposed deep neural network is better than that of shallow neural networks. Although the complexity of the model is high, the accuracy of wind-speed prediction and stability are also high. The proposed model effectively improves the accuracy of ultrashort-term wind-speed forecasting in wind farms.

Keywords

Wind-speed forecasting; DBN; Elman; HHT; Combined neural network

Fig. 1 Structure of the DBN-Elman model

Fig. 2 Training procedure of the DBN-Elman model

Fig. 3 Change in inertia weight ω

Fig. 4 Change of inertia weight ω

Fig. 5 Flowchart of combined forecasting

Fig. 6 Wind-speed time-series data

Fig. 7 Frequency distribution of wind-speed data

Fig. 8 EMD decomposition results of raw wind-speed data

Fig. 9 Prediction results of different models based on EMD

Fig. 10 Evaluation metrics for different models (M1: Elman;M2: LSTM; M3: DBN; M4: DBN-Elman; M5: HHT-DBN;M6: HHT-DBN-Elman; M7: IPSO-HHT-DBN; M8: IPSOHHT-DBN-Elman)

本文引文信息

Liu W, Xue FF, Gao SY, et al. (2023) Wind-speed forecasting model based on DBN-Elman combined with improved PSO-HHT, Global Energy Interconnection, 6(5): 530-541

刘玮，薛飞飞，高岩松等 (2023) 基于 DBN-Elman 和改进 PSO-HHT 方法的风速预测模型. 全球能源互联网（英文）, 6(5): 530-541

Biographies

Wei Liu

received the B.E.degree from Hohai University,Nanjing,China,and M.E.degree at Tianjin University,Tianjin,China.He is working in Northwest engineering corporation limited,Xi’an.His research interests include the new energy power generation engineering.

Feifei Xue

received the B.E and M.E.degree in energy and power engineering from HoHai University,and Ph.D.degree in the college of water conservancy and hydropower engineering of HoHai University in 2023,Nanjing,China.He is working in Hohai University.His research interests include the aerodynamics of wind farms and numerical simulations of wind turbines.

Yansong Gao

received her B.E.degree from Hohai University in 2021.She is pursuing her M.E.degree at Hohai University,Nanjing,China.Her research interests include wind power prediction and optimal scheduling of wind farms.

Wumaier Tuerxun

received the M.E.degree in energy and power engineering from Hohai University,Nanjing,China,in 2008,where he is currently pursuing the Ph.D.degree with the College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering.His research interests include optimal operation and fault diagnosis of wind turbines.

Jing Sun

received the B.E.degree and M.E.degree at Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an,China.He is working in Northwest engineering corporation limited,Xi’an.His research interests include the electrical design and research of new energy power generation project.

Yi Hu

received the B.E.degree in 2015 and M.E.degree at HoHai University in 2017,Nanjing,China.He is working in Northwest engineering corporation limited,Xi’an.His research interests include the Micro-siting of wind farms.

Hongliang Yuan

received the B.E.degree from Lanzhou University and master’s degree from Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an,China.He is working in Northwest engineering corporation limited,Xi’an.His research interests include the new energy engineering design and research.

编辑：王彦博

审核：王伟

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