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A review of uncertain factors and analytic methods in long-term energy system optimization models

2023-11-20

A review of uncertain factors and analytic methods in long-term energy system optimization models

长期能源系统优化模型的不确定性因素及分析方法综述

Siyu Feng¹, Hongtao Ren^1,3, Wenji Zhou²

1.School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, P. R. China

2.School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, P. R. China

3.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria

Abstract

A larger number of uncertain factors in energy systems influence their evolution. Owing to the complexity of energy system modeling, incorporating uncertainty analysis to energy system modeling is essential for future energy system planning and resource allocation. This study focusses on long-term energy system optimization model. The important uncertain parameters in the model are analyzed and divided into policy, economic, and technical factors. This study specifically addresses the challenges related to carbon emission reduction and energy transition. It involves collecting and organizing relevant research on uncertainty analysis of long-term energy systems. Various energy system uncertainty modeling methods and their applications from the literature are summarized in this review. Finally, important uncertainty factors and uncertainty modeling methods for long-term energy system modeling are discussed, and future research directions are proposed.

Keywords

Long-term energy system optimization models; Uncertain factors; Uncertainty modeling

Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of the long-term energy system optimization model structure

Fig. 2 Uncertainty modeling methods

本文引文信息

Feng SY, Ren HT, Zhou WJ (2023) A review of uncertain factors and analytic methods in long-term energy system optimization models, Global Energy Interconnection, 6(4): 450-466

凤斯雨，任宏涛，周文戟 (2023) 长期能源系统优化模型的不确定性因素及分析方法综述. 全球能源互联网（英文）, 6(4): 450-466

Biographies

Siyu Feng

is working towards master’s degree at East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai. Her research interests included energy technology system modeling,uncertainty analysis.

Hongtao Ren

received the Doctor’s degree at Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Japan, 2007. He is working in East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai. His research interests included energy technology system modeling,energy system multiple-criteria analysis.

Wenji Zhou

received the Doctor’s degree at Tsinghua University, Beijing, 2011. He is working in Renmin University of China,Beijing. His research interests included energy modeling, energy economics.

编辑：王彦博

审核：王伟

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