【论文推荐】国网江苏经研院 王静怡等：碳达峰目标下区域电力系统供电成本研究

随着2030年碳达峰目标的确立，我国能源系统碳减排发展方向进一步明确，而电力行业作为我国碳排放占比最大的单一行业，其低碳转型是我国碳达峰目标实现的重要途径。但现有研究多侧重于国家层面碳达峰实现路径的技术分析或成本核算，缺乏对具有复杂跨区电力流交换及能源资源开发多方受限的区域电力系统的针对性研究；同时系统成本的测算也缺乏全寿命周期视角，并忽视了存量惯性和增量扰动的动态关系。因此，本文从全寿命周期的视角构建碳达峰目标下区域电力系统供电成本测算模型，从经济性角度对碳目标的实现路径进行对比分析，为电力系统转型的路径选择和政策制定提供参考。

Fig.1  System cost structure

Fig.2  The kWh cost calculation process

Fig.3  New power installations and channel scale under base load scenario-New Energy + Channel

Fig.4  New power installations and channel scale under base load scenario-High Nuclear Power

Fig.5  Uncertain forecasting results of wind power

New power installations and channel scale under high load scenario-New Energy + Channel

Fig.6  New power installations and channel scale under high load scenario-New Energy + Channel

Fig.7  Power supply and channel unit cost

Fig.8  The benchmark FIRR for different power sources and channels [15]

Fig.9  Incremental cost of power supply and transmission channel under base load scenario-New Energy + Channel

Fig.10  Incremental cost of power supply and transmission channel under base load scenario-High Nuclear Power

Fig.11  Incremental cost of power supply and transmission channel under high load scenario-New Energy + Channel

Fig.12  Incremental cost of power supply and transmission channel under high load scenario-High Nuclear Power

Fig.13  Different power and channel costs under base load scenario-New Energy + Channel

Fig.14  Different power and channel costs under base load scenario- High Nuclear Power

Fig.15  Different power and channel costs under high load scenario-New Energy + Channe

Fig.16  Different power and channel costs under high load scenario- High Nuclear Power

Fig.17  Power-supply costs under different carbon-peak paths

Fig.18  Comparison of carbon-peak path schemes-base load scenario

Fig.19  Comparison of carbon-peak path schemes-high load scenario